Happiness

Ginger and I got a kick out of this in the Wall Street Journal today, in an article called "No Satisfaction: Why What You Have is Never Enough":

We're bad at forecasting. Consider a study by academics Daniel Kahneman and David Schkade.

They asked university students in the Midwest and Southern California where they thought someone like themselves would be happier -- and both groups picked California, in large part because of the better weather. Yet, when asked how satisfied they were with their own lives, both groups were equally happy.

"When you're thinking about moving to California, you're thinking about the beaches and the weather," says Mr. Schkade, a management professor at the University of California at San Diego. "But you aren't thinking about the fact that you'll still be spending a lot of time in the grocery store or doing chores."

It reminded me of this excellent TED talk by Dan Gilbert from 2004. In it, he discusses a study of paraplegics and lottery winners. Paraplegics and lottery winners were studied one year after losing control of their legs or winning the lottery. The researchers wanted to find out which group was happier. It turned out that both groups were equally happy.

Most people would rather win the lottery than become a paraplegic, yet either event will have an equal impact on one's happiness. We're bad at forecasting what will bring happiness.

My only question is, which is like being a paraplegic and which is like winning the lottery, living in California or living in the Midwest?


By the way, if you like that TED talk by Dan Gilbert, you may like his new book, Stumbling on Happiness.